* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/13/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 50 59 65 72 78 81 85 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 47 46 36 31 39 40 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 44 44 35 30 39 43 53 SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 3 1 3 9 12 4 9 4 3 7 2 SHEAR DIR 181 177 140 152 50 39 43 50 45 300 139 263 178 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 144 144 146 149 148 148 149 151 153 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 136 138 137 139 140 139 138 138 139 139 141 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 50 48 49 45 46 48 49 54 52 52 53 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 7 850 MB ENV VOR 28 15 8 3 -1 0 5 0 -6 1 2 -12 -12 200 MB DIV 10 6 5 1 -1 -1 14 -1 11 18 32 22 8 LAND (KM) 697 690 576 455 334 97 11 -18 -77 -4 6 9 38 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.6 20.3 21.2 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 58.3 59.4 60.4 61.5 62.6 64.8 67.1 69.1 71.0 72.9 74.5 76.1 77.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 51 61 64 34 58 56 49 30 9999 57 32 23 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 26. 35. 41. 48. 54. 57. 62. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 25. 34. 40. 47. 53. 57. 60. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/13/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/13/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED