* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * TEN EP102008 08/13/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 48 51 51 50 48 45 44 42 40 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 48 51 51 50 48 45 44 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 45 46 48 48 47 46 44 41 38 36 SHEAR (KTS) 20 23 17 20 20 20 17 18 20 23 16 18 18 SHEAR DIR 65 78 81 87 100 106 99 109 100 119 118 112 112 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 148 147 145 141 136 133 131 128 122 117 118 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 74 72 75 75 75 74 70 68 63 63 57 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 10 7 10 10 6 15 6 13 17 31 23 200 MB DIV 26 25 36 29 27 25 13 26 3 11 -3 3 5 LAND (KM) 344 372 425 477 531 569 593 630 669 722 775 834 908 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.8 19.2 19.2 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.3 108.2 109.0 109.8 111.2 112.7 113.7 114.4 115.4 116.8 117.7 118.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 7 6 4 4 6 6 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 16. 15. 11. 9. 7. 5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 13. 16. 16. 15. 13. 10. 9. 7. 5. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP102008 TEN 08/13/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102008 TEN 08/13/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY