* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/14/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 52 60 68 75 78 81 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 36 40 33 35 36 32 29 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 31 38 32 33 35 31 29 36 SHEAR (KTS) 11 3 3 2 3 9 4 8 6 8 12 9 9 SHEAR DIR 178 167 157 232 359 36 87 9 163 230 208 245 204 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 145 146 149 149 149 150 151 154 157 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 139 139 142 144 142 140 140 139 140 140 143 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 51 50 46 45 46 51 49 51 51 54 49 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -6 -9 -5 -3 3 4 -1 -6 -3 -17 -23 -36 200 MB DIV 0 -9 -6 8 -8 -6 -5 -3 -6 18 11 19 -23 LAND (KM) 690 606 481 351 221 -22 -16 -65 23 -18 -30 -5 29 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.2 18.7 18.9 19.4 20.0 20.9 21.7 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 59.0 60.2 61.3 62.5 63.7 66.4 68.8 71.1 73.1 75.0 76.4 77.5 78.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 12 11 10 10 9 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 59 64 55 61 68 9999 40 9999 90 80 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 27. 36. 43. 49. 53. 57. 59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 35. 43. 50. 53. 56. 57. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/14/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/14/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY