* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ISELLE EP102008 08/14/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 42 42 42 40 38 37 34 32 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 42 42 42 40 38 37 34 32 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 40 39 38 37 35 33 30 28 SHEAR (KTS) 25 20 25 22 24 23 20 18 23 19 20 22 20 SHEAR DIR 63 70 86 95 99 111 112 113 102 121 116 116 117 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 148 145 143 139 134 130 127 123 119 116 113 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 73 77 77 78 74 74 68 66 65 62 57 57 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 6 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 13 14 16 19 6 16 6 6 0 10 17 18 200 MB DIV 26 29 29 27 38 8 28 33 -4 9 -11 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 344 396 453 509 546 537 576 623 676 729 777 846 921 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.1 108.9 109.7 110.5 111.9 113.1 114.1 115.0 116.0 117.1 118.1 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. -1. -3. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP102008 ISELLE 08/14/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102008 ISELLE 08/14/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY