* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/14/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 35 38 38 39 40 38 37 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 35 38 38 39 40 38 37 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 30 30 29 28 26 SHEAR (KTS) 16 17 17 18 12 14 13 12 14 12 17 10 10 SHEAR DIR 87 82 91 88 94 92 103 108 100 96 97 125 115 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.4 25.9 25.4 24.7 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 150 148 144 138 131 125 120 115 109 101 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 64 65 66 66 64 58 60 56 52 49 48 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 31 43 44 47 54 51 58 72 72 73 53 42 20 200 MB DIV 57 83 78 77 96 63 39 61 38 17 4 14 -5 LAND (KM) 1401 1445 1485 1505 1528 1571 1582 1578 1578 1591 1598 1633 1695 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 119.2 119.9 120.5 121.1 121.6 122.7 123.6 124.2 124.7 125.3 126.0 127.0 128.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 23. 23. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 17. 13. 12. 11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 14. 15. 13. 12. 11. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/14/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/14/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY