* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/14/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 50 58 66 72 78 78 80 78 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 44 50 58 66 72 78 78 80 78 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 43 51 58 65 73 81 86 87 86 SHEAR (KTS) 0 2 6 4 10 13 4 4 4 9 17 12 13 SHEAR DIR 169 235 306 352 4 25 350 46 237 206 238 234 272 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 145 146 149 149 148 148 151 155 161 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 138 140 141 142 140 137 135 136 138 140 138 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 50 48 46 45 48 48 53 51 48 51 49 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 -10 -11 -15 -16 -22 -33 -37 -23 -29 -19 -23 200 MB DIV -9 -4 -4 -17 -19 -13 2 29 18 49 9 -3 -23 LAND (KM) 686 554 423 279 141 88 56 66 133 160 237 296 322 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.3 19.9 20.4 21.1 22.1 23.2 24.2 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 59.3 60.5 61.7 63.1 64.4 67.0 69.4 71.5 73.2 74.6 75.6 76.3 76.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 62 63 62 53 59 71 61 59 68 61 66 73 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 21. 29. 37. 43. 49. 49. 51. 50. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 28. 36. 42. 48. 48. 50. 48. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/14/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/14/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY