* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ISELLE EP102008 08/14/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 43 43 41 40 36 33 31 28 25 23 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 43 43 41 40 36 33 31 28 25 23 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 44 44 42 39 36 33 30 28 25 23 SHEAR (KTS) 20 26 25 30 29 26 26 20 22 20 23 20 19 SHEAR DIR 71 85 89 87 95 104 116 122 122 122 131 140 138 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.3 25.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 145 143 141 138 132 127 125 122 114 109 109 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 73 72 70 67 65 62 57 52 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 6 4 4 2 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 14 19 13 14 13 7 12 2 13 9 13 200 MB DIV 36 37 29 38 43 11 27 3 6 2 1 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 405 455 506 523 508 460 469 502 529 552 581 640 693 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.2 20.3 20.5 21.0 20.9 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.0 109.8 110.4 110.9 112.0 113.2 113.9 114.3 115.0 116.2 116.9 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 7 5 3 3 5 5 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 12. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP102008 ISELLE 08/14/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102008 ISELLE 08/14/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY