* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/14/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 50 58 66 71 75 78 80 80 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 50 51 58 64 68 71 73 72 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 47 52 61 69 75 77 79 80 SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 7 6 6 2 3 12 11 16 13 14 10 SHEAR DIR 228 251 253 310 352 139 292 192 232 203 236 219 269 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 146 150 150 149 149 150 150 155 160 161 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 141 144 144 141 139 138 136 138 140 138 138 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 46 43 43 45 46 48 50 50 50 52 51 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -8 -11 -8 -9 -14 -20 -15 -14 -16 -13 -11 -5 200 MB DIV -6 -1 -15 -14 4 -1 23 12 44 29 21 -9 -4 LAND (KM) 382 248 116 12 34 5 24 45 40 109 148 198 235 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.5 20.0 20.6 21.4 22.4 23.2 23.9 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 62.1 63.4 64.6 66.0 67.3 69.8 72.2 74.2 75.7 76.6 77.3 77.7 78.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 60 63 52 14 66 0 1 47 58 61 63 10 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 30. 37. 42. 46. 49. 51. 52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 28. 36. 41. 45. 48. 50. 50. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/14/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/14/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY