* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ISELLE EP102008 08/14/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 46 43 40 35 30 25 21 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 46 43 40 35 30 25 21 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 48 47 44 39 35 31 27 24 21 18 SHEAR (KTS) 25 28 31 31 31 32 26 24 25 29 24 24 17 SHEAR DIR 77 88 87 92 97 108 121 115 121 122 125 124 113 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.0 24.6 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 142 141 135 129 125 121 118 110 106 103 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 75 72 70 71 66 66 62 58 53 52 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 25 19 14 17 -2 1 1 1 13 6 10 200 MB DIV 40 32 51 52 25 16 0 -12 17 8 -11 -14 -6 LAND (KM) 464 495 490 454 425 419 449 494 503 525 564 627 690 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.3 20.0 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.4 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 109.8 110.4 110.9 111.4 112.6 113.5 114.2 114.8 115.5 116.4 117.2 117.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 6 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -21. -23. -23. -24. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -5. -11. -17. -22. -27. -30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. -29. -32. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP102008 ISELLE 08/14/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102008 ISELLE 08/14/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY