* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/14/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 49 58 65 72 76 82 84 88 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 33 35 33 30 33 38 41 44 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 29 38 41 34 31 33 30 32 38 44 51 SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 3 4 4 4 2 5 7 11 9 11 4 SHEAR DIR 229 226 272 351 20 296 114 216 214 224 207 210 144 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 149 150 149 149 152 151 154 157 160 163 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 144 144 142 140 141 139 139 141 141 140 137 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 42 43 45 47 44 46 50 50 48 49 50 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 8 10 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -13 -10 -15 -19 -17 -19 -21 -28 -47 -19 -12 2 200 MB DIV -7 -16 -10 -8 -3 7 39 9 38 23 40 22 -1 LAND (KM) 221 84 0 45 21 -33 12 -41 -20 3 85 181 198 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.3 21.1 21.9 23.0 23.9 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 63.6 64.9 66.2 67.5 68.8 71.2 73.4 75.2 76.7 77.7 78.4 78.5 78.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 7 7 5 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 66 46 0 72 14 9999 69 9999 9999 0 89 18 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 29. 36. 43. 48. 53. 56. 60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 35. 42. 46. 52. 54. 58. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/14/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/14/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY