* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/14/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 27 24 23 21 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 27 24 23 21 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 22 20 18 15 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 20 18 18 15 13 10 12 14 15 21 21 27 30 SHEAR DIR 77 85 83 93 95 110 117 126 144 150 151 162 164 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 26.9 26.1 25.5 24.8 24.2 23.4 22.7 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 141 138 131 122 116 109 103 95 88 82 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 64 61 60 60 58 51 48 44 40 37 34 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 45 48 57 59 62 79 69 59 36 30 18 22 -1 200 MB DIV 55 52 47 45 39 52 30 9 2 -20 12 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1384 1384 1387 1392 1399 1397 1397 1426 1422 1442 1471 1511 1577 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.3 20.0 20.8 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 119.9 120.4 120.8 121.3 121.7 122.5 123.2 124.0 124.8 125.7 126.7 127.8 129.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/14/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/14/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY