* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/15/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 59 66 74 82 87 92 92 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 59 66 74 82 87 92 92 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 35 37 43 50 57 65 74 83 90 93 SHEAR (KTS) 6 4 6 7 3 7 7 6 6 5 8 4 13 SHEAR DIR 231 293 316 343 290 320 202 283 218 266 205 283 236 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 149 150 149 148 148 151 157 163 162 159 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 142 142 140 138 135 136 140 143 140 137 130 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 44 47 47 47 47 51 48 53 55 51 50 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 13 13 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -18 -20 -21 -21 -31 -39 -38 -19 -2 14 45 21 200 MB DIV -7 -2 -1 0 -7 13 13 33 53 44 20 26 29 LAND (KM) 116 21 44 77 33 55 144 185 308 450 550 615 715 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.3 21.2 22.2 23.7 25.1 26.4 27.6 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 64.6 65.8 67.0 68.1 69.2 71.4 73.0 74.3 74.9 75.0 74.6 73.9 73.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 52 15 64 68 51 47 67 55 35 62 65 46 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 29. 37. 45. 53. 58. 63. 65. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 29. 36. 44. 52. 57. 62. 62. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/15/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/15/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY