* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ISELLE EP102008 08/15/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 36 34 30 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 36 34 30 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 35 33 29 26 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 28 31 31 30 30 28 27 26 37 30 32 25 27 SHEAR DIR 79 89 97 107 107 127 125 120 120 128 126 112 97 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 137 134 129 125 121 119 116 114 112 111 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 73 75 73 70 67 61 59 56 56 51 49 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 23 15 22 23 3 6 14 8 18 19 28 19 200 MB DIV 61 59 32 17 8 5 -15 -3 -3 -15 -26 -13 -23 LAND (KM) 593 577 568 558 557 583 647 690 715 766 831 891 931 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.3 111.9 112.5 113.1 114.1 115.0 115.8 116.4 117.2 118.0 118.8 119.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. -23. -24. -25. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -15. -21. -26. -30. -31. -32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -24. -28. -31. -33. -33. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP102008 ISELLE 08/15/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102008 ISELLE 08/15/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY