* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/15/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 55 63 72 77 82 84 87 86 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 36 33 30 33 42 46 52 54 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 36 39 33 29 36 39 48 56 63 68 71 SHEAR (KTS) 1 5 6 0 5 3 7 4 11 8 14 15 13 SHEAR DIR 294 328 338 275 310 30 229 217 262 345 331 27 20 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 151 149 149 150 151 150 151 156 156 158 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 144 144 142 141 140 138 135 135 136 133 133 134 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 45 47 46 44 49 48 51 50 51 54 49 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 12 12 13 13 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -5 -2 0 1 -2 -8 -10 -5 3 -1 12 8 200 MB DIV 2 -3 5 -8 -5 21 31 52 18 48 9 27 -5 LAND (KM) 31 5 45 -5 -66 -31 -2 10 98 206 264 282 267 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.6 20.1 21.0 22.0 23.2 23.7 24.0 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 65.4 66.7 68.0 69.2 70.4 72.6 74.3 75.5 76.0 76.2 76.0 76.2 76.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 11 11 10 7 6 6 4 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 35 20 74 7 9999 9999 70 2 72 34 7 44 91 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 32. 42. 48. 55. 58. 60. 59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 25. 33. 42. 47. 52. 54. 57. 56. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/15/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/15/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY