* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ISELLE EP102008 08/15/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 34 33 30 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 34 33 30 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 30 29 26 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 24 30 31 30 33 29 27 30 35 29 29 28 26 SHEAR DIR 81 88 106 111 117 127 130 115 124 124 125 103 107 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 137 136 134 129 126 122 120 118 115 114 113 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 70 68 64 62 55 57 52 51 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 4 850 MB ENV VOR 21 14 21 23 17 17 29 15 26 18 25 21 31 200 MB DIV 41 20 14 -7 2 -8 14 5 2 -6 3 0 -3 LAND (KM) 606 609 618 626 639 682 723 750 775 821 876 944 984 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.2 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.0 112.6 113.2 113.7 114.8 115.5 116.2 116.8 117.5 118.4 119.2 119.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -20. -22. -23. -24. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -18. -23. -26. -27. -26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -19. -23. -25. -27. -25. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP102008 ISELLE 08/15/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102008 ISELLE 08/15/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY