* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 08/15/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 44 49 53 57 61 64 66 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 44 49 53 57 61 64 66 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 43 48 55 62 68 69 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 4 6 11 21 8 14 2 6 13 17 22 SHEAR DIR 49 31 108 115 91 150 182 189 198 247 334 316 320 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 136 137 137 139 141 141 142 147 150 148 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 130 131 131 132 133 131 130 132 131 127 124 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 11 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 60 54 51 54 52 44 43 41 39 35 37 42 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 11 11 11 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 48 45 44 31 25 -5 -28 -68 -91 -119 -114 200 MB DIV 39 29 32 45 20 -8 7 -10 -14 -27 -7 -4 3 LAND (KM) 1190 1196 1210 1232 1192 1164 1045 908 843 870 930 1024 1066 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.7 17.3 18.8 20.5 22.3 23.9 25.4 26.6 27.7 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.4 50.4 51.3 52.2 54.0 56.0 58.1 60.2 62.0 63.7 64.9 65.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 10 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 33 45 53 55 55 46 54 41 31 42 40 29 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 17. 23. 28. 33. 38. 41. 43. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 41. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 08/15/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 08/15/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY