* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ISELLE EP102008 08/15/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 30 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 30 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 29 28 25 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 28 28 32 32 30 29 25 36 30 33 31 31 31 SHEAR DIR 91 105 108 117 120 121 115 109 120 113 110 116 107 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 137 136 134 131 130 128 126 124 122 122 119 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 75 74 69 68 66 62 61 57 57 55 53 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 20 25 21 12 19 23 21 27 30 27 36 25 200 MB DIV 15 1 -19 -1 4 -12 -3 -6 -1 -26 -14 -14 -12 LAND (KM) 591 591 599 605 618 677 744 815 867 910 957 1014 1067 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 111.8 112.4 113.0 113.5 114.4 115.3 116.2 117.1 117.8 118.5 119.3 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -21. -23. -23. -23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -18. -21. -22. -23. -24. -23. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP102008 ISELLE 08/15/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102008 ISELLE 08/15/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY