* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/15/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 31 33 30 30 33 33 35 34 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 31 33 30 30 33 33 35 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 24 22 21 19 17 SHEAR (KTS) 14 10 10 11 13 17 15 18 16 19 23 24 20 SHEAR DIR 83 101 107 121 127 134 136 119 131 129 143 142 147 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.5 25.9 25.3 24.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 140 138 134 131 130 127 121 115 110 107 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 57 59 57 55 50 48 45 42 37 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 18 26 32 29 33 14 15 6 6 4 3 200 MB DIV 22 18 7 27 34 20 5 -5 16 8 8 24 -3 LAND (KM) 1476 1466 1459 1451 1445 1459 1514 1589 1699 1790 1895 2025 2148 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.2 121.6 121.9 122.1 122.7 123.5 124.5 125.8 127.4 129.0 130.8 132.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 5 4 3 4 4 6 7 8 8 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 8. 8. 6. 8. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 5. 5. 8. 8. 10. 9. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/15/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/15/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY