* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * FAY AL062008 08/15/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 50 56 64 69 73 79 84 82 82 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 36 33 30 33 36 42 48 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 29 38 34 30 35 41 48 56 63 68 SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 7 8 8 12 6 14 9 7 3 14 12 SHEAR DIR 291 252 294 295 299 279 219 252 301 258 318 257 272 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.4 28.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 151 152 153 158 161 165 165 157 148 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 143 144 143 141 144 145 147 145 136 126 119 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 47 50 46 49 53 51 53 51 60 56 58 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 12 12 12 13 12 11 13 16 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 -4 1 7 -10 -11 -39 -11 -9 -6 -21 -33 200 MB DIV 26 20 -11 2 32 -26 14 0 -2 14 32 -17 52 LAND (KM) -20 -46 -66 -33 33 -33 -32 32 176 105 30 55 106 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.3 21.3 22.5 24.0 25.5 26.9 28.2 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 68.6 70.0 71.3 72.6 73.8 75.7 77.3 78.3 78.7 79.2 79.8 80.0 79.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 83 9999 9999 1 40 83 27 3 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 29. 34. 38. 44. 49. 47. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 29. 34. 38. 44. 49. 47. 47. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/15/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :5041.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/15/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY