* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/15/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 49 57 61 64 70 77 76 78 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 33 30 28 33 36 42 49 48 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 31 29 28 33 39 45 52 60 64 SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 8 9 9 12 6 14 9 8 4 14 12 SHEAR DIR 291 252 288 291 288 279 219 252 301 263 317 257 272 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.4 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 151 152 153 158 161 165 165 157 148 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 143 144 143 141 144 145 147 145 136 126 117 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 47 50 45 48 53 52 53 51 60 56 59 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 12 12 12 13 12 11 13 16 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -5 0 6 -12 -13 -40 -9 -8 -5 -21 -34 200 MB DIV 27 20 -11 3 31 -26 14 2 -2 14 31 -18 52 LAND (KM) -11 -40 -55 -29 38 -22 -23 43 186 102 29 58 113 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.4 21.4 22.6 24.1 25.6 27.0 28.3 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.6 70.0 71.3 72.6 73.8 75.7 77.3 78.3 78.7 79.2 79.8 80.0 79.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 48 9999 9999 9999 82 9999 9999 17 38 73 26 3 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 17. 26. 31. 36. 43. 50. 49. 50. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 27. 31. 34. 40. 47. 46. 48. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/15/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/15/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY