* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ISELLE EP102008 08/15/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 29 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 29 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 29 27 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 29 31 32 33 30 31 29 34 28 37 36 36 32 SHEAR DIR 105 106 113 115 110 119 108 118 113 117 113 108 106 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 137 135 133 131 130 128 126 125 124 122 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 66 64 62 58 58 56 55 48 49 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 27 21 10 18 29 19 24 19 23 12 20 6 200 MB DIV 8 -12 -5 -4 -5 0 -11 2 -6 0 -6 -20 -30 LAND (KM) 602 600 605 617 634 689 744 813 853 900 953 1008 1059 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 111.8 112.3 112.8 113.3 114.2 115.1 116.0 116.7 117.5 118.2 119.0 119.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -18. -22. -24. -26. -28. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -22. -25. -27. -29. -30. -29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -19. -25. -28. -29. -30. -30. -29. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP102008 ISELLE 08/15/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102008 ISELLE 08/15/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY