* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * FAY AL062008 08/16/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 56 61 67 75 81 84 86 88 89 85 V (KT) LAND 40 35 37 43 47 48 56 42 47 49 44 37 31 V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 32 40 44 46 54 42 55 62 58 45 34 SHEAR (KTS) 3 6 8 7 7 13 11 10 10 7 12 15 15 SHEAR DIR 238 278 283 276 235 247 262 284 238 275 251 270 254 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 153 154 158 162 166 167 167 163 153 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 146 147 146 148 149 152 150 146 142 134 125 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 11 8 10 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 54 51 55 54 58 58 58 59 57 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 14 13 13 14 16 14 15 17 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 8 12 7 1 -9 -5 4 4 0 6 3 200 MB DIV 36 12 33 63 -12 -35 8 10 -11 -5 -3 18 46 LAND (KM) -36 -73 10 72 34 17 34 -44 111 63 -27 -4 -101 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.5 20.1 21.2 22.6 24.2 25.7 27.1 28.9 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 70.2 71.6 72.9 74.3 75.6 77.6 79.1 80.6 81.7 82.3 82.2 82.7 83.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 10 9 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 11 86 85 58 48 9999 90 9 9999 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 27. 35. 41. 44. 46. 48. 49. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 16. 21. 27. 35. 41. 44. 46. 48. 49. 45. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/16/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :2545.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/16/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY