* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ISELLE EP102008 08/16/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 29 32 32 30 31 28 30 30 34 33 37 35 33 SHEAR DIR 101 108 107 104 102 103 105 110 103 112 116 111 112 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 136 135 133 129 127 125 123 119 117 116 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 5 6 5 6 5 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 67 64 64 60 60 56 53 48 47 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 24 15 18 19 15 11 10 9 14 3 8 5 200 MB DIV -7 1 -9 -14 -20 -6 -12 -8 -12 -39 1 -8 -2 LAND (KM) 552 549 548 557 568 609 645 707 784 842 901 952 1006 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.8 18.9 18.8 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 111.4 111.7 111.9 112.3 112.6 113.5 114.4 115.3 116.3 117.3 118.3 119.0 119.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -11. -16. -21. -23. -25. -27. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -23. -28. -30. -33. -34. -33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -22. -27. -31. -32. -33. -34. -33. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP102008 ISELLE 08/16/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102008 ISELLE 08/16/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY