* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * FAY AL062008 08/16/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 53 56 62 68 73 79 83 82 83 78 V (KT) LAND 40 41 45 49 53 56 62 51 56 61 60 51 35 V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 42 46 50 60 67 54 59 65 71 62 39 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 4 5 6 11 22 8 13 10 15 15 23 SHEAR DIR 309 295 265 260 283 247 267 262 258 275 277 231 287 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.3 28.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 153 153 155 160 164 166 169 165 157 149 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 146 146 147 149 150 151 152 146 136 128 116 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 6 700-500 MB RH 49 51 56 50 52 56 56 59 56 60 59 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 13 13 14 15 13 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 5 8 15 7 1 -2 -10 -4 1 -13 -24 -24 -60 200 MB DIV 14 30 72 18 -21 -5 19 28 -11 15 15 43 0 LAND (KM) -54 5 47 55 32 56 11 22 64 27 52 -21 -203 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.4 21.6 23.2 24.9 26.6 28.4 30.1 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 71.4 72.7 74.0 75.3 76.5 78.5 79.9 80.9 81.7 82.4 83.2 83.7 83.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 9999 23 92 86 85 94 10 39 19 5 4 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 1. -1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 22. 28. 33. 39. 43. 42. 43. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 16. 22. 28. 33. 39. 43. 42. 43. 38. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/16/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :2057.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/16/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED