* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ISELLE EP102008 08/16/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 30 34 31 35 33 28 29 28 35 35 31 25 21 SHEAR DIR 99 104 104 95 101 104 111 107 111 119 115 111 118 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.2 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 135 134 130 128 125 122 119 116 113 108 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 65 64 62 61 57 54 46 45 42 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 22 26 19 18 13 15 3 9 10 11 0 13 200 MB DIV 5 -1 0 -19 -6 -31 -9 -5 -1 -18 -22 -16 -6 LAND (KM) 499 490 482 489 501 540 606 679 731 773 811 853 903 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.6 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.4 111.6 111.8 112.2 112.6 113.5 114.4 115.3 116.2 116.9 117.6 118.4 119.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -17. -22. -24. -24. -25. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -17. -24. -29. -32. -34. -34. -33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -20. -27. -32. -32. -33. -33. -31. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP102008 ISELLE 08/16/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102008 ISELLE 08/16/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY