* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/16/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 50 58 64 70 75 78 78 79 74 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 49 57 47 52 56 60 59 43 32 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 45 42 52 45 48 55 63 68 49 34 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 7 8 8 11 10 6 8 15 16 24 27 SHEAR DIR 321 319 335 326 292 253 306 326 303 260 257 252 253 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.2 28.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 152 155 159 162 166 166 167 162 155 148 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 145 147 149 151 152 150 149 142 134 126 112 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 7 7 4 700-500 MB RH 51 57 52 52 55 56 58 59 62 64 71 70 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 14 12 14 14 14 15 15 13 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 2 11 10 0 -8 -11 -11 -15 -3 -9 -7 -3 -10 200 MB DIV 28 70 -3 -18 -24 -6 23 18 13 26 38 60 40 LAND (KM) 32 33 77 42 1 67 -44 88 81 66 78 -104 -287 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.9 22.4 24.0 25.7 27.4 29.2 31.0 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 72.9 74.2 75.5 76.6 77.6 79.3 80.8 81.8 82.5 83.3 84.1 84.6 84.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 87 89 86 73 34 9999 89 11 13 6 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 18. 24. 31. 37. 40. 40. 41. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 18. 24. 30. 35. 38. 38. 39. 34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/16/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/16/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY