* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ISELLE EP102008 08/16/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 27 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 32 27 31 31 28 28 25 34 29 31 23 20 22 SHEAR DIR 109 106 94 105 104 108 115 108 117 118 118 109 90 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.8 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 132 131 127 122 117 115 111 108 109 112 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 71 65 65 68 62 61 56 52 46 47 41 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 24 17 20 16 13 13 4 8 3 10 6 14 200 MB DIV -1 -13 -35 -8 -17 -16 -14 6 -16 -38 -13 -18 -39 LAND (KM) 521 507 495 500 509 555 606 636 675 731 800 902 1020 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 19.9 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.3 112.5 112.9 113.3 114.3 115.3 116.0 116.6 117.4 118.3 119.3 120.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -20. -21. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -13. -20. -25. -29. -32. -32. -32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -15. -23. -28. -30. -30. -31. -30. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP102008 ISELLE 08/16/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102008 ISELLE 08/16/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY