* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/16/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 47 52 58 66 73 72 73 72 67 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 40 44 50 46 53 60 57 38 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 37 40 45 42 48 54 56 39 30 28 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 6 7 7 10 4 15 12 23 26 30 24 SHEAR DIR 283 310 307 277 259 264 295 313 277 297 269 281 271 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.2 28.3 27.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 159 162 166 166 167 163 155 140 131 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 146 149 152 153 150 148 143 134 120 110 103 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -51.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 12 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 6 7 700-500 MB RH 52 53 51 55 55 55 61 59 63 64 68 64 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 14 14 15 14 12 13 17 13 12 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 4 -11 0 -20 -4 -14 -12 -20 -10 -15 -21 200 MB DIV 49 7 -20 -21 10 -33 9 4 45 -1 37 24 24 LAND (KM) 69 47 15 31 63 3 45 77 8 17 -105 -191 -264 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.9 23.6 25.3 26.9 28.6 30.5 32.0 33.1 LONG(DEG W) 74.6 75.7 76.8 77.8 78.8 80.4 81.4 82.1 82.5 82.8 82.9 83.2 83.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 88 87 83 71 38 13 91 5 5 1 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 21. 25. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 3. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 24. 32. 39. 38. 39. 38. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 23. 31. 38. 37. 38. 37. 32. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/16/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/16/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY