* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/17/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 48 50 56 63 68 71 71 73 70 68 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 46 48 39 46 51 43 34 29 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 41 43 45 37 43 49 43 34 29 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 10 5 9 9 9 12 9 11 13 13 12 SHEAR DIR 289 296 286 225 225 256 316 328 296 295 277 264 247 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.5 28.8 28.1 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 161 162 164 165 165 167 160 147 137 128 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 152 152 152 150 148 148 139 125 115 109 103 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 13 12 11 11 9 9 7 8 5 6 700-500 MB RH 56 53 57 59 60 60 61 64 66 67 67 72 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 13 13 11 12 13 13 13 11 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 31 7 -10 -5 -8 -13 -28 -23 -36 -34 -35 -34 -25 200 MB DIV 10 -8 -14 14 4 -29 16 -2 31 22 38 23 36 LAND (KM) 58 15 38 49 40 -44 100 50 -11 -44 -79 -100 -214 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.6 24.1 25.8 27.6 29.2 30.3 31.9 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 75.7 76.8 77.9 78.9 79.8 81.0 81.7 82.2 82.4 82.4 82.2 82.2 82.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 8 8 9 9 7 7 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 88 83 78 45 8 9999 93 7 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 16. 23. 29. 32. 33. 35. 32. 30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 10. 16. 23. 28. 31. 31. 33. 30. 28. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/17/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/17/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY