* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ISELLE EP102008 08/17/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 24 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 26 24 24 27 30 22 28 27 33 29 30 21 22 SHEAR DIR 105 106 96 101 108 110 113 108 110 108 117 116 114 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.6 25.1 24.6 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 132 132 129 126 123 121 120 117 112 107 101 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 68 71 72 69 67 67 61 58 57 52 45 45 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 32 26 25 28 31 22 14 21 14 -4 -8 -6 200 MB DIV -15 5 -3 -5 -10 -16 16 0 2 -16 -10 -21 2 LAND (KM) 553 567 585 609 637 685 739 773 810 847 891 964 1013 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.3 19.6 20.1 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.0 113.4 113.9 114.4 115.2 116.0 116.6 117.2 118.0 118.9 120.2 121.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -19. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -19. -22. -27. -28. -29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 1. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -18. -23. -23. -26. -28. -28. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP102008 ISELLE 08/17/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102008 ISELLE 08/17/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY