* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/17/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 59 65 72 76 77 78 75 71 65 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 54 43 47 54 49 38 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 53 58 62 49 50 56 54 40 32 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 9 13 15 8 10 11 13 16 18 11 11 SHEAR DIR 288 281 229 241 241 254 272 314 277 276 272 260 263 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.1 28.2 27.4 27.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 163 165 166 165 167 163 153 139 128 124 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 150 154 155 153 148 148 143 131 118 108 104 98 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 51 55 59 56 55 61 60 62 61 66 68 71 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 11 12 12 13 13 11 11 11 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -11 -3 -22 -33 -29 -38 -29 -31 -26 -37 -30 -57 200 MB DIV -7 3 15 -4 -21 35 10 27 24 37 10 45 5 LAND (KM) 26 40 38 6 -44 66 59 -19 -13 -107 -87 -179 -310 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.6 22.4 23.8 25.4 27.0 28.7 30.3 31.8 33.3 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 76.8 77.8 78.8 79.8 80.7 81.7 81.9 82.2 82.5 82.5 82.1 82.2 82.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 10 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 85 64 51 7 9999 93 4 2 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 16. 22. 29. 33. 34. 34. 32. 28. 22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 14. 20. 27. 31. 32. 33. 30. 26. 20. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/17/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/17/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED