* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/17/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 55 62 69 76 76 79 74 71 64 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 43 38 49 56 46 36 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 44 39 47 52 44 35 29 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 14 10 13 13 12 7 11 11 13 23 23 30 27 SHEAR DIR 285 258 258 244 250 236 290 265 287 268 280 264 261 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.3 28.5 27.8 27.3 26.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 164 166 166 167 166 156 143 133 127 121 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 153 153 151 149 147 135 122 112 107 102 95 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 12 11 11 9 9 7 8 4 7 1 700-500 MB RH 59 63 61 59 65 62 66 65 65 65 62 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 11 12 12 13 15 17 15 19 17 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -2 -15 -29 -20 -24 -15 -11 -20 -14 -25 -16 -31 200 MB DIV 9 21 0 -18 14 38 17 35 31 19 29 23 12 LAND (KM) 45 54 32 -22 -12 112 36 -9 -72 -109 -169 -295 -445 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.2 23.0 24.5 26.3 28.2 29.8 31.3 32.7 34.5 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 79.0 79.9 80.6 81.3 82.0 82.3 82.6 82.6 82.6 82.6 82.6 82.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 10 9 8 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 84 49 9 9999 0 85 6 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 4. 2. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 19. 26. 33. 33. 35. 30. 28. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 31. 31. 34. 29. 26. 19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/17/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.5 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/17/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY