* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/18/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 49 52 57 62 63 63 61 59 53 47 V (KT) LAND 45 45 43 41 44 49 54 43 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 39 37 43 47 52 48 33 29 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 11 14 11 9 4 13 14 20 17 17 24 24 27 SHEAR DIR 248 240 294 319 323 313 310 317 309 299 287 284 280 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.1 28.1 27.4 26.9 26.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 165 165 165 167 161 152 137 129 123 114 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 154 150 148 148 148 139 131 117 110 104 95 90 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 8 8 5 7 4 7 700-500 MB RH 61 60 66 67 64 68 65 71 70 70 67 61 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -25 -28 -26 -29 -28 -19 -24 -35 -80 -62 -81 -83 200 MB DIV 13 -7 19 48 28 8 46 3 31 12 17 6 25 LAND (KM) 87 27 3 6 91 95 12 -4 -81 -56 -176 -299 -445 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.8 22.5 23.2 23.9 25.6 27.3 28.7 30.2 31.9 34.0 35.7 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 80.3 81.1 81.8 82.2 82.5 82.6 82.7 82.6 82.2 81.7 81.2 81.2 81.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 9 7 8 8 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 2 32 73 13 5 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 19. 21. 20. 16. 15. 9. 4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 18. 18. 16. 14. 8. 2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/18/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/18/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY