* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/18/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 55 62 66 70 69 70 64 60 53 V (KT) LAND 45 37 40 43 46 52 47 35 30 28 27 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 45 37 40 41 43 48 46 35 29 27 27 27 28 SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 7 9 12 9 13 14 22 24 28 22 13 SHEAR DIR 236 250 275 250 253 254 269 264 288 267 296 279 293 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.3 28.4 27.5 27.1 26.4 25.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 165 165 167 165 156 142 130 125 117 110 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 149 147 148 145 136 121 110 106 99 92 88 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 6 6 3 6 3 700-500 MB RH 58 66 67 66 65 65 65 68 67 66 62 59 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 13 13 14 15 14 16 15 17 16 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -7 -14 -23 -20 -11 -7 -8 -36 -32 -37 -28 -89 200 MB DIV 23 44 34 40 3 35 18 72 20 51 -1 20 -10 LAND (KM) 11 -15 18 102 152 63 -9 -87 -87 -171 -352 -476 -565 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.6 23.3 24.1 24.8 26.3 28.2 29.9 31.6 33.3 35.2 36.9 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 80.8 81.5 82.2 82.4 82.6 82.6 82.6 82.5 82.2 82.1 82.5 82.5 82.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 0 47 78 34 10 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 22. 27. 26. 27. 22. 17. 10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 21. 25. 24. 25. 19. 15. 8. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/18/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/18/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY