* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/18/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 62 67 69 71 66 65 57 51 44 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 62 45 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 55 57 59 44 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 15 11 12 14 12 17 18 26 22 30 26 33 30 SHEAR DIR 254 239 257 265 274 268 279 288 294 279 289 287 275 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.2 28.1 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 25.9 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 169 165 154 137 127 124 121 118 112 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 154 152 149 144 133 117 107 103 99 97 93 88 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 10 10 7 8 5 7 3 6 2 700-500 MB RH 68 69 66 67 70 65 65 67 62 61 59 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 14 14 14 15 15 19 17 21 18 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -11 -21 -25 -21 -5 -12 -7 -32 -14 -40 -27 -32 200 MB DIV 44 67 40 3 31 22 19 42 9 10 0 21 5 LAND (KM) 12 89 69 43 18 -12 -79 -47 -91 -150 -202 -337 -474 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.0 24.8 25.6 26.3 27.8 29.5 31.0 32.1 33.1 33.9 35.2 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 81.2 81.5 81.7 81.9 82.1 82.3 82.0 82.0 82.0 82.0 81.9 82.2 82.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 0 36 4 4 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 1. 4. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 19. 22. 17. 17. 9. 3. -3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 19. 21. 16. 15. 7. 1. -6. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/18/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/18/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY