* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/18/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 34 39 44 52 57 62 64 65 65 65 67 V (KT) LAND 25 30 34 39 44 52 57 62 64 65 65 65 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 41 47 52 54 56 58 60 64 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 9 3 3 14 17 15 16 13 15 11 12 SHEAR DIR 72 66 78 189 146 204 246 215 243 218 262 281 313 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.9 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 135 134 128 123 125 129 130 137 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 132 131 130 125 119 122 125 126 132 138 138 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 62 65 63 62 59 56 52 49 48 48 47 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 70 76 76 68 74 68 50 33 15 9 -11 -13 200 MB DIV 91 79 63 41 38 23 12 23 0 -9 -2 -16 44 LAND (KM) 1838 1846 1856 1871 1839 1732 1631 1566 1519 1420 1195 900 684 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.0 18.1 19.4 20.3 21.3 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 34.4 35.2 35.9 36.9 37.8 39.9 42.4 45.0 48.1 51.2 54.5 57.7 60.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 12 13 15 16 16 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 10 11 11 12 13 19 25 34 43 47 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 27. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 25. 31. 37. 40. 42. 42. 43. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 14. 19. 27. 32. 37. 39. 40. 40. 40. 42. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/18/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/18/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY