* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ISELLE EP102008 08/18/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 25 24 31 30 26 23 22 23 27 30 34 32 24 SHEAR DIR 109 110 113 122 131 134 138 131 137 120 122 119 124 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.5 24.8 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.5 24.4 24.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 124 121 119 112 108 106 106 109 108 105 105 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 68 65 63 60 60 55 52 42 38 37 34 32 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 48 41 44 42 39 35 32 39 40 52 39 38 200 MB DIV 24 20 11 31 32 1 -9 0 4 -1 21 13 -18 LAND (KM) 750 801 861 952 1049 1280 1519 1776 2037 2162 1865 1550 1229 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.5 18.1 17.7 17.4 17.1 17.2 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.2 118.2 119.4 120.5 123.1 125.9 128.8 131.6 134.4 137.3 140.3 143.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 13 14 13 13 14 14 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -7. -13. -18. -21. -23. -24. -23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -8. -16. -21. -21. -21. -22. -20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP102008 ISELLE 08/18/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102008 ISELLE 08/18/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY