* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/18/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 60 65 68 71 71 70 65 60 53 48 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 60 48 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 55 57 47 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 13 10 6 13 12 18 18 22 25 24 31 SHEAR DIR 224 226 247 271 266 268 291 285 257 286 271 305 272 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.4 28.4 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.2 25.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 172 170 167 163 158 141 131 127 124 121 114 109 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 151 146 143 137 121 110 105 103 100 94 90 87 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 6 7 4 6 3 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 69 64 60 61 56 57 54 51 48 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 15 16 17 17 18 17 19 19 20 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -10 -16 -4 -3 -13 -25 -46 -33 -44 -25 -32 -16 200 MB DIV 64 53 15 28 39 9 71 22 50 -15 19 -12 59 LAND (KM) 107 81 50 13 -37 -71 -49 -34 -65 -143 -262 -362 -464 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.1 25.8 26.6 27.4 29.0 30.4 31.4 32.3 33.4 34.6 35.5 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.0 82.2 82.2 82.2 82.0 81.9 81.7 81.6 81.6 81.8 82.3 83.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 71 3 7 3 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 12 CX,CY: -3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 22. 21. 17. 12. 5. 0. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 21. 20. 15. 10. 3. -2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/18/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/18/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY