* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/18/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 46 50 53 54 53 55 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 46 50 53 54 53 55 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 37 37 38 38 41 44 SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 9 8 15 23 16 25 20 20 14 17 13 SHEAR DIR 116 131 156 176 184 227 225 230 234 238 254 256 269 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.1 26.9 27.3 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 135 133 126 125 130 130 135 143 144 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 131 132 130 123 122 128 127 130 138 137 138 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 63 62 61 58 58 54 53 49 49 51 53 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 10 8 9 9 8 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 76 78 78 75 88 91 64 45 31 1 3 -16 -11 200 MB DIV 92 72 57 39 38 17 22 21 15 -9 2 36 31 LAND (KM) 1834 1837 1845 1823 1761 1643 1537 1465 1435 1288 1002 757 681 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.9 15.9 17.0 18.4 19.7 20.8 22.0 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 36.0 36.8 37.8 38.8 41.1 43.9 46.9 50.2 53.3 56.5 59.6 62.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 13 15 16 17 16 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 15 16 17 15 18 27 32 34 50 45 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 33. 34. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 25. 28. 29. 28. 30. 32. 33. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/18/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/18/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED