* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/19/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 58 60 63 64 62 61 57 54 52 48 V (KT) LAND 50 52 45 39 34 29 31 29 26 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 44 38 33 29 31 33 32 29 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 15 17 12 6 12 9 16 13 14 17 23 23 24 SHEAR DIR 226 253 298 260 262 277 265 275 262 276 286 285 275 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.1 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 171 167 163 156 149 136 129 126 126 126 123 120 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 147 143 135 128 115 107 102 103 104 101 98 97 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 11 7 8 5 7 5 8 4 9 700-500 MB RH 67 66 68 62 58 57 61 59 60 63 60 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 18 17 17 17 16 18 17 18 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -18 -6 -3 -5 -6 -13 -41 -21 -35 -16 -11 12 200 MB DIV 51 24 43 34 -1 32 45 28 27 8 46 29 29 LAND (KM) 78 22 -13 -74 -72 -45 7 7 -9 -74 -174 -263 -322 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.8 26.6 27.4 28.1 29.4 30.4 30.9 31.0 31.5 32.4 32.9 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 81.9 81.9 81.9 81.8 81.7 81.6 81.3 81.4 81.6 82.1 82.8 83.6 84.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 2 4 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 1 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 9. 12. 14. 13. 13. 9. 7. 5. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 14. 12. 11. 7. 4. 2. -2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/19/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.7 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/19/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY