* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/19/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 43 49 51 52 53 54 56 57 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 43 49 51 52 53 54 56 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 36 36 37 39 42 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 9 15 23 18 21 26 19 18 18 20 17 SHEAR DIR 147 156 179 187 203 225 208 245 244 266 264 261 254 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 135 133 130 125 127 129 131 140 144 147 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 132 130 126 122 125 127 127 134 136 136 138 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 65 61 62 60 60 55 53 50 49 52 52 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 7 8 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 80 74 78 92 93 87 58 45 19 21 -5 -10 -21 200 MB DIV 69 50 36 33 20 27 21 2 -2 17 -9 46 25 LAND (KM) 1826 1839 1802 1740 1686 1576 1509 1493 1373 1136 902 767 774 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.4 16.7 18.1 19.6 20.9 22.0 23.3 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 36.2 37.1 38.0 39.1 40.1 42.7 45.5 48.7 52.0 55.2 58.0 60.6 62.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 14 16 17 17 15 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 17 18 17 17 21 26 26 46 45 41 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 33. 35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. 31. 32. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/19/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/19/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY