* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/19/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 54 56 58 63 64 64 63 62 55 55 51 V (KT) LAND 50 42 36 32 30 35 37 37 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 43 37 32 30 38 41 43 35 30 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 10 12 11 6 19 15 20 16 21 19 18 SHEAR DIR 233 270 266 271 283 227 259 241 263 248 293 251 263 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 165 156 150 144 134 128 127 127 126 124 125 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 146 134 128 122 113 105 103 104 105 102 103 111 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 10 8 6 7 5 7 5 7 6 700-500 MB RH 65 66 63 58 56 57 54 57 58 62 59 64 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 16 16 18 20 21 21 24 20 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -5 -4 -1 -7 -6 -29 -11 -20 0 -11 39 17 200 MB DIV 19 17 9 4 4 62 23 56 24 28 3 49 12 LAND (KM) 45 -29 -88 -71 -38 23 37 13 -15 -58 -156 -222 -133 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.4 27.2 27.8 28.4 29.5 30.5 30.7 30.7 31.1 32.2 32.1 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 81.8 81.6 81.4 81.2 81.0 80.9 81.0 81.3 81.6 82.1 82.7 83.5 84.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 7 6 6 5 3 1 2 5 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 3 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 2 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 3. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 15. 16. 14. 14. 7. 7. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 5. 5. 1. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/19/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/19/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED