* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/19/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 46 48 48 48 50 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 46 48 48 48 50 51 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 31 31 30 31 32 33 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 14 19 24 19 31 23 27 20 22 20 31 SHEAR DIR 158 180 174 194 215 226 227 253 247 258 259 272 256 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.9 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 134 131 128 125 129 131 138 143 146 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 131 127 126 123 128 128 134 138 138 141 139 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 62 59 55 52 51 54 56 57 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 8 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 78 84 93 99 98 73 52 35 9 1 -9 -17 -14 200 MB DIV 58 40 37 32 30 28 12 32 12 13 26 19 2 LAND (KM) 1808 1793 1739 1682 1634 1556 1516 1446 1242 944 759 760 904 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.8 16.2 17.6 19.2 20.6 21.9 23.2 24.9 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 37.0 38.0 38.9 40.0 41.1 44.0 47.1 50.7 54.1 57.5 60.6 63.4 65.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 14 16 17 18 17 17 15 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 18 19 15 18 23 26 38 44 41 57 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 20. 23. 24. 25. 27. 28. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 21. 23. 23. 23. 25. 26. 27. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/19/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/19/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY