* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * FAY AL062008 08/19/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 58 63 64 66 65 65 60 57 51 V (KT) LAND 50 41 35 32 37 42 42 35 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 41 35 32 36 39 43 36 30 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 13 10 8 11 14 18 15 22 16 18 16 SHEAR DIR 258 274 250 259 241 240 256 246 261 266 267 248 267 SST (C) 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 156 149 143 140 134 129 128 128 131 131 134 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 135 127 121 118 111 106 105 105 108 108 111 111 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -50.8 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 8 8 5 7 4 7 4 9 5 700-500 MB RH 64 60 58 56 57 60 57 57 58 56 61 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 17 17 18 19 19 21 22 24 22 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -2 -2 -2 3 6 -15 10 4 22 24 42 35 200 MB DIV 12 11 0 1 41 58 40 49 22 31 35 30 9 LAND (KM) -49 -93 -43 -14 25 59 24 -18 -62 -124 -138 -143 -62 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.1 27.8 28.4 28.9 29.8 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.9 31.3 31.3 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 81.4 81.2 80.9 80.8 80.6 80.6 81.1 81.6 82.1 82.8 83.9 84.9 85.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 1 5 3 1 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 4. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 14. 16. 15. 15. 10. 7. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 14. 16. 15. 15. 10. 7. 1. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/19/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :3335.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/19/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY