* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/19/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 54 62 69 73 77 80 81 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 54 62 69 73 77 80 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 47 55 64 74 83 88 SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 10 9 10 9 8 5 0 6 5 4 11 SHEAR DIR 153 158 170 211 234 195 266 172 4 148 34 112 69 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 134 131 129 133 135 136 141 144 145 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 133 132 129 127 133 133 133 137 141 141 143 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 63 65 63 57 53 46 46 48 45 51 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 78 85 89 74 76 70 40 39 22 27 14 26 200 MB DIV 34 37 40 36 30 27 14 8 20 -13 -4 -34 -10 LAND (KM) 1739 1743 1690 1615 1546 1428 1286 1241 1125 951 761 453 157 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.4 15.0 16.0 16.8 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 37.2 38.1 38.9 40.0 41.1 43.6 46.6 49.6 52.6 55.5 58.5 61.4 64.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 15 15 14 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 21 17 18 28 48 50 57 61 62 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 28. 37. 45. 50. 54. 57. 58. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 29. 37. 44. 48. 52. 55. 56. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/19/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/19/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY