* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * FAY AL062008 08/19/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 64 65 67 65 65 62 61 55 53 V (KT) LAND 55 44 38 41 43 45 46 34 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 43 37 39 42 46 49 36 30 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 11 7 9 12 14 16 13 16 16 21 16 SHEAR DIR 227 236 249 215 213 231 234 249 239 277 241 277 248 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 150 145 141 138 135 131 130 134 137 135 136 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 128 122 118 115 111 108 107 110 112 111 112 110 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 8 10 7 8 5 7 7 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 61 57 55 55 50 48 54 53 58 56 64 62 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 16 16 17 17 19 19 21 20 23 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -4 0 11 14 -13 5 -11 14 -5 29 16 58 200 MB DIV 4 3 8 32 41 11 20 12 45 8 42 -25 38 LAND (KM) -92 -51 -9 10 47 51 9 -60 -104 -72 -88 -105 -101 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.6 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.5 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.9 31.1 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 80.9 80.7 80.6 80.4 80.6 81.2 82.0 82.8 83.6 84.3 85.3 86.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 1 4 7 2 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 10. 10. 7. 6. 0. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 10. 10. 7. 6. 0. -2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/19/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :2502.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/19/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY