* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * FAY AL062008 08/20/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 55 57 60 63 65 65 65 63 56 53 V (KT) LAND 50 42 46 49 50 53 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 42 45 46 48 51 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 6 8 14 11 11 8 11 9 16 17 25 SHEAR DIR 206 244 236 205 209 251 241 257 241 268 246 269 241 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 143 139 138 133 131 135 137 138 132 128 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 124 119 115 114 110 109 111 114 116 111 104 103 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.0 -51.3 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 9 6 7 5 8 5 9 4 10 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 54 53 55 56 59 57 59 58 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 17 18 19 21 22 22 21 21 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 11 16 19 -1 14 15 17 7 27 9 21 200 MB DIV 13 4 28 33 43 34 31 21 27 34 53 5 47 LAND (KM) -54 -12 19 39 62 16 -66 -94 -58 -86 -122 -145 -125 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.0 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.6 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.8 31.6 31.9 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 80.9 80.7 80.4 80.4 80.3 81.0 82.0 82.7 83.5 84.7 86.4 87.4 87.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 3 5 7 6 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 9999 0 4 6 7 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. 13. 6. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. 13. 6. 3. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/20/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :2003.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/20/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY