* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/20/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 46 47 48 50 52 53 53 52 51 48 47 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 51 52 54 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 45 45 46 48 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 3 6 9 9 11 8 19 18 17 22 31 SHEAR DIR 240 271 287 232 226 228 253 251 277 264 284 255 255 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 140 139 138 133 133 137 137 137 136 131 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 119 116 115 114 111 110 113 113 113 112 108 103 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 8 8 6 7 7 8 6 9 5 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 55 53 61 55 61 56 58 57 61 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -4 2 3 -24 -16 -40 -15 -39 -3 -7 22 13 200 MB DIV 15 25 33 32 14 19 9 34 4 31 -11 33 2 LAND (KM) -7 24 53 56 60 0 -75 -83 -64 -91 -72 -127 -178 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.6 30.8 31.1 31.6 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 80.6 80.4 80.1 80.3 80.4 81.2 82.1 83.0 83.9 85.0 86.0 87.0 87.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 3 5 7 6 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. 2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/20/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/20/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED