* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/20/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 55 62 66 69 73 77 81 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 55 62 66 69 73 77 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 46 54 61 68 75 80 SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 4 10 10 9 2 8 6 11 5 9 6 SHEAR DIR 224 244 169 163 156 98 69 56 73 79 81 87 69 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 134 136 139 143 149 149 147 147 143 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 130 131 134 139 145 153 154 151 150 145 147 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 12 11 13 11 700-500 MB RH 62 60 59 56 57 51 54 50 57 50 55 52 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 79 64 70 72 54 30 7 10 5 2 13 23 200 MB DIV 48 45 35 31 30 25 11 0 -13 -9 -4 7 23 LAND (KM) 1548 1475 1406 1324 1246 1076 887 735 607 323 182 234 262 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.3 12.1 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.8 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 40.0 41.0 42.0 43.1 44.1 46.5 49.2 52.3 55.3 58.4 61.4 64.2 67.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 13 14 15 15 15 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 23 24 26 42 50 67 58 79 64 51 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 9. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 29. 37. 43. 47. 51. 55. 59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 30. 37. 41. 44. 48. 52. 56. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/20/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/20/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED