* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/20/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 50 53 55 57 55 54 52 51 49 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 51 52 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 47 48 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 4 7 11 5 9 6 19 17 13 9 15 11 SHEAR DIR 257 266 239 221 244 241 235 269 285 251 300 244 243 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 137 134 133 134 138 139 139 139 136 135 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 115 114 111 111 111 114 114 114 116 113 111 109 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.0 -51.7 -50.9 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 8 7 8 6 9 6 8 5 9 5 700-500 MB RH 55 54 56 55 56 59 63 58 58 54 58 58 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 20 20 19 20 20 21 21 20 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -7 -2 -33 -36 -22 -36 -20 -14 2 0 11 12 200 MB DIV 28 48 53 19 10 31 15 26 1 38 -4 42 11 LAND (KM) 0 4 15 10 1 -74 -66 -34 -34 -43 -36 -36 -43 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.8 30.9 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 80.6 80.7 80.8 81.0 81.1 82.0 83.0 83.8 84.4 85.4 86.7 87.7 88.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 3 4 4 3 3 5 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 12. 11. 11. 9. 9. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/20/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/20/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY